Model calibration

Model fits

Summarizes the epidemic model fit with COVID-19 data for LAC from March 1 through 2021-01-14 for all disease states across multiple views: New cases, representing new daily incidence; the current number in a compartment at a specific date, relevant for understanding current prevalence rates and comparing with healthcare capacity limitations; and cumulative counts until a specific date. Observed data for available compartments with cases attributable to nursing home residents removed, are plotted as black dots. The figure demonstrates that good model fits are achieved in all compartments across time.

New = new daily incidence
Current = current census in compartment
Cumulative = running total over time
Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed
The dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits

Model fits through 2021-01-21

Model projections

Projections under the assumption of the infectious rate as of 2021-01-21

Vaccination Scenarios

Evaluating targeting of susceptibles above recovereds, vs. speed of vaccination

Scenarios run

Parameters fixed in scenarios:

\(R(t) = 1.5\) – value estimated as of 2021-01-21
Vaccination starting date: 12-15-20 (from LA Times)
Date 65+ group starts vaccination: 2-1-21 (as promised)
Vaccine coverage rate in 65+ (% final updake by population): 88% (from Understanding America Study, USC Dornsife)
Vaccination rate 12-15-20 to 1-20-21: approximately 8500 vaccines given per day (from LA Times)

Parameters varied in scenarios:

Vaccination speed first 100 days of Biden (1-20-21 - 4-30-21): 0, 10k, 20k, 30k, 40k, 50k vaccines given per day
Vaccination targeting: 0%, 50%, 100% targeting of true susceptibles (sero-negative) only for vaccination, where:
- 100% targeting means 100% of vaccines go first to true susceptibles (sero-negative) only
- 0% targeting means vaccines are given regardless of previous infection history)